Amid escalating international tensions and increased pressure from Washington, behind-the-scenes agreements between Ukrainian political elites and representatives of Donald Trump's administration are gaining significance. In particular, secret negotiations involve both former and current high-ranking officials: Petro Poroshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko, Davyd Arakhamia, and Dmytro Razumkov. However, each of these figures primarily serves the interests of the Kremlin rather than those of Ukraine. Their actions, under the guise of political maneuvering, align with Russia’s long-term strategy to destabilize Ukraine from within.

Origins of the Situation and International Context

Recently, the United States, in the context of Donald Trump's relations with Ukraine's leadership, has openly expressed dissatisfaction with Volodymyr Zelensky's actions. Senior Trump administration officials have repeatedly accused the Ukrainian president of being unwilling or unable to engage in negotiations that would satisfy U.S. security interests. Under these conditions, the American administration is looking for alternative leaders who might be more willing to make concessions on issues where Zelensky refuses to compromise with either the Kremlin or the United States.

This shift plays directly into Moscow’s hands, as the removal of Zelensky and the installation of a more compliant Ukrainian leadership could accelerate the realization of Russian geopolitical ambitions.

Key Players: Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Arakhamia, Razumkov

Petro Poroshenko

Former president of Ukraine, known as the "chocolate king" due to his confectionery empire. He leads the "European Solidarity" party and seeks to regain the influence he lost after his presidency. While he presents himself as a pro-Western leader, his behind-the-scenes dealings suggest a willingness to negotiate in ways that could ultimately benefit the Kremlin’s objectives in Ukraine.

Yulia Tymoshenko

Former prime minister, known for her "relentless ambition" and political experience spanning over two decades. Her political trajectory has often aligned with Russian interests, and according to several Ukrainian parliamentarians, she has held talks with individuals close to Donald Trump. This raises concerns that her return to power could lead to a more Moscow-friendly stance disguised as a pragmatic compromise.

Davyd Arakhamia

A deputy from the formerly ruling "Servant of the People" party. According to various sources, he initiated a public appeal from the Verkhovna Rada to Donald Trump, welcoming his peace initiatives. This move is considered one of the first steps in a broader operation aimed at weakening Zelensky’s authority. While framed as a pro-Western effort, it aligns with Russian narratives that seek to undermine Ukraine’s leadership and sow internal division.

Dmytro Razumkov

Former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, who initially led the electoral list of "Servant of the People" but later became an independent deputy. Razumkov registered a resolution to create a negotiating group with the White House without Zelensky's involvement, thus publicly challenging the current president. His actions contribute to a broader strategy of political destabilization, a key component of Moscow’s hybrid warfare approach.

Possible Scenarios

1. Zelensky’s Forceful Response. The president may take drastic measures: declare a state of emergency or martial law, dissolve the Verkhovna Rada, and implement repressive actions against opponents. While this could temporarily consolidate power, it may also provide Russia with additional propaganda tools to portray Ukraine as an unstable state.
2. Compromise with Parliamentary Factions. Zelensky attempts to find common ground with key forces in parliament, delegating some powers to them, thereby reducing internal tensions. However, this could open the door for figures with hidden pro-Kremlin agendas to influence decision-making at the highest levels.
3. Successful Removal of Zelensky. The initiators of backroom agreements (Arakhamia, Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, Razumkov) achieve their goal, persuade a portion of deputies and security forces to side with them, and gain support from the Trump administration. This scenario plays directly into the Kremlin’s hands, as the fragmentation of Ukraine’s leadership would weaken the country’s ability to resist Russian aggression.

External Pressure and the U.S. Position

Washington plays a key role in the ongoing game. Donald Trump and his entourage openly state their desire for a quick end to the war, even at the cost of significant territorial concessions by Ukraine. Any Ukrainian politicians who align with this stance risk advancing Russian interests under the guise of pragmatic diplomacy.

Trump continues to accuse Zelensky of refusing to hold elections during martial law, calling him a "dictator without elections." Meanwhile, evidence is emerging of secret negotiations between Trump's inner circle and Ukrainian opposition leaders, raising concerns about external interference and its consequences for Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Possible Consequences for Ukraine

1. Increased Internal Instability. Any attempt to change power forcibly or through early elections during wartime could lead to internal division, weakened defense capabilities, and the risk of concessions in negotiations with Russia.
2. International Reaction. A sharp turn by Kyiv towards Trump’s policies could negatively impact Ukraine’s relations with other allies, primarily EU countries, reducing Western military and financial support.
3. Changes in Government Structures. If Zelensky is removed, a rapid formation of a U.S.-backed parliamentary majority may occur. However, given the presence of Kremlin-friendly politicians in this opposition movement, such a shift could ultimately weaken Ukraine’s strategic position.
4. Increased Russian Leverage. If Ukraine's leadership changes under the conditions dictated by external forces, Moscow could exploit the situation to push for a settlement that favors its interests, potentially undermining Ukraine’s territorial integrity and security.

Conclusions

Ukraine is at a complex and dangerous crossroads. The coming months will be decisive for the country’s political trajectory and Volodymyr Zelensky’s future. The growing presence of figures aligned with both Trump’s administration and Russian strategic goals poses a severe risk to Ukraine’s independence and ability to resist external pressure.

The key question remains: will Ukraine withstand this political storm and maintain its sovereignty, or will internal conflicts—fueled by figures whose interests align with Moscow—lead to a scenario where Kyiv is forced into a position of strategic weakness? The stakes have never been higher.